🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.