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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."